Thank you to everyone who joined us for a fun evening at Halftime 2017. Special thanks to Dean Silverman with Blackrock for his presentation.
A fun side note about Dean. He was the captain of the swim team at Goucher college and set a collegiate record in 2014 winning the men’s 200-meter freestyle. He is quite the competitor.
Scattered thoughts from Halftime 2017 on Wednesday, July 27
CAN THIS CONTINUE – this was the most asked question in both the presentation and in conversations heard over the evening. The subject – Real estate and housing prices.
Our thoughts are maybe. Definitive, I know, yet in real estate, here are three major factors. Location, Location, and Location. However, to have an increasing value in the housing market, we must have job growth. Job growth is driving the cost of housing in North Texas. Forbes Magazine, January 10, 2017, named Dallas as the number one market in the country in their annual, “Where to Invest in Housing 2017”.
Interestingly, in Forbes, October 6, 2016, they list “The 10 Best Cities for Future Job Growth”. Dallas ranks 6th and if you look at both lists you will find that there is a high correlation between job growth and housing prices.
RETAIL – Will we all be shopping online for everything? Yes, retail has changed. Technology has changed the habits and approach to purchasing goods and services. Retail will adjust. There are many changes happening and more will continue. I wrote about this disruption in Have You Been Disrupted.
“Despite the success of Amazon, there are many retailers that continue to flourish. The question I always ask is “WHY?”
These companies are making themselves un-Amazonable. They are creating communities of like-minded people who want to be a part of that community.”
The key ingredient is truly simple. People will get their goods and services from where they get the combination of service and price that creates value. The absence of perceived value, people will go elsewhere. A Tale of Service is just about that difference.
IMPACT of TECHNOLOGY – Technology is everywhere. There is no going back to the days of Ward and June Cleaver. Yet technology does not always increase the price. A great example is the cost of oil. Today, the shale producers in Texas can almost match the cost of getting the oil out of the ground of the Saudi Arabian oil fields. The result is lower gas prices.
In 1976, Jim Crosby and I could fill up his 1965 white convertible Ford Mustang with quadraphonic sound for $12.00. We were good for a weekend of going around town, If Jim still had that Mustang, then using our Gas Buddy App we would find that Sam’s has the best price for $1.99 per gallon. Simple math says that for the same 20 gallons of gas, we would spend $39.80 today.
Now, let’s adjust that for inflation and we find that based on a $.59 cost per gallon in 1976 we should be paying $2.57 per gallon according to dollartimes.com.
A$1.99 per gallon that is a 22.5% discount.
Thanks again to everyone that attended. Mark your calendar for Forecast 2018 on Thursday, January 25, 2018.
Have a question that needs answering?
Drop me an email firstname.lastname@example.org or give any of our team a call 214-239-4700.
Be A Financial Olympian
Michael Tannery CPA CDFA® AIF® ● CEO
Be A Financial Olympian™