Have you visited our new office neighbor -- Sweet Firefly? Whether you are enjoying one of the many ice cream flavors, a shaved ice, coffee, or a variety of their specialty candy, the owners Patti and Angie, always make your visit special. They are on a mission to spread joy among all by offering simple goodness for all ages.
The inspiration for Sweet Firefly is from Patti’s daughter, Kate, who passed away in 2009. Katerbug, as she was known was filled light, joy, and hope. Sweet Firefly is always buzzing with activity. There is a room in the back to rent for birthday parties or any other fun activities. On occasion, you may either Tina or Chrissy doing storey time and activities. Be sure to join in the fun.
Mark your calendar for February 21st they will be having a Mardi Gras celebration.
Besides the GREAT and the maybe not so great commercials, what does the Super Bowl have to do with the financial markets? Well there is a claim that the winner of the Super Bowl predicts the fate of the market for the rest of the year.
Super Bowl Indicator (SBI)
You can predicate the market results for 2012 –If the winning team is from the original NFC the Bulls will be running and the market will rise; however, if an AFC team wins expect a downward market.
An Alternative Theory
You can choose the winner by reviewing the Dow. If the Dow rises from the end of November until Super Bowl game day, the team whose full name appears later in the alphabet will win.
Over the last 41 years the SBI prediction has been right about 80% of the time. However, what is interesting is when you compare the two teams in this year’s Super Bowl – The New England Patriots and the New York Giants the average returns are not much different (6.6% versus -3.4%).
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S & P 500 Returns Following Super Bowl
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Year
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Winning Team
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Conference
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% change
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1987
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Giants
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NFC
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-9.9%
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1991
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Giants
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NFC
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22.2%
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2008
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Giants
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NFC
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-30.0%
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|
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|
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2002
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Patriots
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AFC
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-17.1%
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2004
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Patriots
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AFC
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6.1%
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2005
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Patriots
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AFC
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3.6%
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|
|
|
|
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No matter what theory you use for this year’s Super Bowl match-up of the NY Giants and the New England Patriots should be taken lightly. Have fun and enjoy the commercials!
The information in this article and other sources regarding the Super Bowl Indicator are provided for entertainment only and not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult your financial advisor prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly.
Have you heard the rumor or received the chain e-mail that telemarketers will be allowed to call your cell phone? Well, it is just a rumor. "These sort of emails need to be ignored and deleted," Scott Mulford, media spokesman for Illinois Attorney General’s Office said. "They are designed solely to get personal information from you like account numbers and phone numbers. The best tip I can give you is to just delete it."
To help prevent these calls and identity theft spend a few minutes to:
- Add your entire phone numbers including your cell phone to the or call 888-382-1222.
- Remove your name from direct marketing lists (OptOutPreScreen or 888-567-8688, which is the official consumer credit reporting industry opt-out website
- Cut down on the number of catalogs register with the Mail Preference Service of the Direct Marketing Association.
By taking a few minutes to cut down on junk mail and solicitation, you will be protecting yourself from identity theft, saving time, natural resources, and landfill space.
For our clients and friends that were not able to attend The 2012 Outlook meeting last night at Maggiano’s, we invite you to read the 2012 Outlook Abridged summary.
If you have any questions about the Outlook 2012 or your own account, please give us a call. We are always available and ready to answer the questions that “might be keeping you awake at night”.
Happy New Year! Are your goals set? Want to make your 2012 a Powerful Year?
STEP 1 - You have to write it down first. Take the time today and write yourself a letter dated December 31, 2012. Write it as if TODAY is December 31, 2012 stating to yourself and anyone you want to share it with what you accomplished in 2012. It is a powerful expression of your future and your intentions for the year. 
STEP 2 - Be bold and read it out loud to your spouse, your children or your employees.
Of course it takes action to back up your story.....find a mentor or be a mentor to someone and change your life. We challenge you to think outside the norm and make 2012 the best ever.
We shared ours this morning at our weekly team meeting. Feel free to forward yours to us and we will reciprocate.
We are ready for an incredible 2012!
Re-examine the adequacy and liquidity of your emergency fund. Remember, your emergency fund is the “buffer” which prevents you from carrying credit card debt. When expenses exceed income, you dip into the emergency fund to avoid carrying a balance on your credit cards. Then, focus your savings effort to replenish the emergency fund so it is there the next time you need it. If you have to dip into the emergency fund too often and aren’t replenishing it, it is a sure sign that your cash flow plan needs review.
Plan holiday spending to keep in line with budgeted amount - travel, entertainment, gifts, etc. Consider “acts of kindness” and “gifts of time” instead of spending money on more “things.” Often, those gifts are more rewarding, meaningful, and cheaper!
Update your home inventory (actually, best done after the holiday giving season). Be sure to include: item, cost/value, date and place purchased. File receipts with home inventory. It's also a good idea to photograph or video items so your insurance company has the best information available should you need to file a claim. Store photos, video tape and inventory away from home.
If making year-end gifts, the annual exclusion amount that can be given by each individual to any number of individuals for 2011 is $13,000/person. If a gift exceeds the annual exclusion amount, then you must file a gift tax return (IRS Form 709) even though you will not owe gift tax on the first $5 million gifted. However, you do use up a portion of the unified credit which offsets estate tax at death.
The estate tax returned in 2011 after a hiatus in 2010. However, the first $5 million of an estate isn’t taxable (providing none of the unified credit has been used).
Review your credit report for inaccuracies and accounts that should be closed but which remain open. All US citizens are eligible for a free credit report from each of the three reporting agencies annually – www.annualcreditreport.com.
Review your Comprehensive Loss Underwriting Exchange (C.L.U.E. ®) reports. The C.L.U.E. Personal Property report provides a seven year history of losses associated with an individual’s personal property. The C.L.U.E. Auto loss report provides a seven year history of vehicle losses. Just as ensuring that your credit report is accurate, it is important to ensure these reports are as well as they may appreciably impact your insurance premiums; so, take advantage of the free reports annually – https://personalreports.lexisnexis.com/fact_act_claims_bundle/landing.jsp.
So, what does choose well mean? - Michael Tannery
Our Destination: Live well. The question is, how do you get there? The choices you make - or don't make - right now will shape your wellness Journey for 2012.
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Option
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Description
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Our Advice1[i]
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Medical
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Generally, choose from preferred provider organization plans (PPOs), health maintenance organization plans (HMOs) or High Deductible Health Plan (HDHP) where available. All plans provide preventive care at no or low cost, prescription drug benefits, and an out-at-pocket maximum to protect you financially in the event of a serious injury or illness. But there are key differences in flexibility and how you pay for coverage.
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Examine current health and dependent care health.
Preventive care now will save money in the future.
Exercise your body consistently.
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Dental
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Generally, companies allow you to choose between a dental provider organization plan (DPO) and a dental maintenance organization plan (DMO) to help manage your dental expenses. Both plans cover preventive, major and orthodontia services but with different provider networks and costs.
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Examine current health and dependent care expenses.
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Vision
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Generally, choose medical coverage and you are automatically enrolled in vision benefits. This coverage helps pay for eye exams, glasses and contact lenses.
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Examine current health and dependent care expenses.
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Life and accident
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Choose to ensure your future financial security in the event of death or accidental injury. Select for yourself, spouse or domestic partner, and children.
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If healthy seek quotes from out sources. If unhealthy maximize group coverage.
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Disability
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Choose to protect yourself in case you become disabled. Disability insurance replaces a portion of your income if you can no longer work.
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Maximize all disability coverage available.
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Flexible Spending
Accounts (FSAs)
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Choose to pay for eligible health care and dependent care expenses with pretax dollars. You must enroll each year to take advantage of this valuable opportunity. Most companies have a maximum contribution limit of 5,000 annually.
Qualified expenses included: prescriptions, co-pays, dental expenses, chiropractor expenses, contact lens, glasses, laser eye surgery and more.
Daycare, before or after school care& babysitters are eligible for dependent FSA.
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Examine current health and dependent care expenses.
If offered, request a FSA debit card.
Maximize all FSA options if children are under age 18.
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Retirement Plans
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Prepare for your financial future with your Company’s Savings Plan. Most Savings Plans allow you to make both pre-tax 401 (k) and/or Roth 401 (k) contributions. Pre-tax contributions reduce your taxable income and earnings on your pre-tax contributions accumulate tax-deferred until withdrawn. Roth 401 (k) contributions are made on an after-tax basis and the Roth 401 (k) contributions and investment earnings are tax-free at the time of a qualified distribution. You receive a company match of X percent on the first X percent you contribute as pre-tax 401 (k) and/or Roth 401 (k) contributions.[ii]2
After X years, you'll have full ownership of the company matching contributions. You're always 100 percent vested in your contributions and earnings on those contributions.
Annually, you're allowed to contribute on a pre-tax and Roth basis the maximum of $17,000 (Age 50 or older an extra $5,500) – the 2012 contribution limit. The 2012 maximum for eligible pay (base salary, overtime, etc.) is $250,000. The combined limit for all contributions including after-tax contributions and company matching contributions is $50,000.
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At a minimum contribute enough to receive the company match.
Cash flow permitting, maximize retirement savings plan annually.
Roth 401(k) is preferred
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*If you have executive perks not included above we can consult with you on those as well*
1 Advice is generalized and may not be appropriate for all people. Please consult with your plan administrator for specific coverage options. Please consult with your financial advisor before making specific decisions about retirement plan contributions.
2The ROTH options offers tax deferral on any earnings in the account. Withdrawals from the account may be tax free, as long as they are considered qualified. Limitations and restrictions may apply. Withdrawals prior to age 59 may result in a 10% IRS penalty tax. Future tax laws can change at any time and may impact benefits of the ROTH. Their tax treatment may change.
The European Summit on October 26, the fourteenth in 21 months, finally produced a deal in a late-night negotiating session. European leaders announced a deal that was close to what had been carefully leaked over the prior weeks of deliberations and had helped the S&P 500 Index to rally off of the lows of the year. From the closing low on October 3, the Index has climbed nearly 17% in just three and a half weeks and is on pace for the largest monthly gain since 1987.
Overall, the statement confirms the view that the risk of a 2008-like financial crisis erupting in Europe, which has been the focus of global markets in recent months, has been taken off the table. However, over the long term, concerns remain about the outlook for economic growth in Europe and the ability of some peripheral countries to meet budget targets. While the statement does not clarify all the details, it does lay out the three most important aspects of the rescue package:
- Reducing Greece’s debt. The package cuts Greece’s debt burden with a 50% “haircut” on Greek bonds. Private investors, including banks, will swap their Greek bonds for those with half the face value, but higher quality given an additional 30 billion euro cushion provided against further losses.
- A bigger buffer against bank losses. Overall, European banks will be required to raise 106 billion euros to temporarily maintain a higher buffer against additional losses on their bond holdings. Banks will be given the opportunity to raise this capital on their own and plug any gaps with funding from their own government and the ability to tap the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) as a last resort.
- Insurance against loss on European government bonds. The EFSF will provide guarantees against the first 20-25% of losses on about one trillion euros of European government debt.
The concerns may be shifting from a crisis to a recession in Europe, as it is likely that Europe will experience a mild recession next year. However, European growth could be even weaker in light of the spending austerity and potential for less lending by the banks. The next step in a successful plan to stabilize Europe is for the European Central Bank to cut interest rates soon and reverse the two rate hikes they made earlier this year to promote growth and lending.
While the devil of the European plan remains in the details, the deal could shift investor focus to U.S. markets where economic growth and corporate profits continue to chug along. Third-quarter economic growth, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), was recently reported at 2.5%, nearly double the pace of growth witnessed in the first two quarters of the year combined. Within the S&P 500, 75% of the companies that have reported third-quarter earnings thus far have exceeded expectations and the companies, in aggregate, are tracking to 15% year-over-year earnings growth, surpassing the 12-13% growth rate that was forecast. Given the current backdrop, we adhere to our forecast of a moderate upside from current levels for the S&P 500 Index in 2011, though we expect the market to remain volatile between now and year-end. As always, I encourage you to contact me with any questions.
Michael Tannery
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult me prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.
International and emerging markets investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors.
This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial.
Continued concern over the debt burden of the developed world combined with the deeply divided political landscape in Washington, D.C. has many investors questioning the sustainability of the economic recovery following the Great Recession of 2008. Growth has slowed and we believe the chance of revisiting a recession has increased to approximately 35%. However, the most likely scenario remains that global growth will continue at its modest pace, which could offer an upside surprise for an increasingly bearish-biased market.
While these volatile markets are sending many investors scrambling for a rock to hide under to wait out the uncertainty, I believe turning over those rocks in search of investment opportunities may prove fruitful over the long term. Fear and emotion oftentimes defines short-term market reactions. However, when fear is at its pinnacle, a patient temperament, faith in your investment plan, and a commitment to opportunistic investments can ultimately turn short-term market challenges into long-term investment success.
One does not have to go far into the history books to find two periods where short-term fear transitioned into investment triumphs. Today’s investment environment is causing investors to face similar challenges to those that haunted them in 2008 and again during the summer of 2010. In both of those periods, prices had declined further than their fundamental values and proactive policy action by central banks served as the catalyst to lure opportunistic investors back into the market. I believe that the same environment exists today and the same elixir is needed for these uncertain times.
The crowded trade certainly remains bearish, but policy actions to stoke the economic growth fire have begun again in earnest. The Federal Reserve Bank announced today that they will provide additional stimulative monetary policy through Operation Twist. Moreover, many central banks around the world that had been intentionally slowing their country’s growth in an attempt to head off inflation are now switching from the brake to the gas pedal to provide more stimulus to jump start growth and the stalling global economic recovery.
The market appears to be suffering much more from a lack of clarity and a wave of uncertainty than it is a degradation in economic fundamentals. While growth has undoubtedly slowed, most corporations are still on pace to post near-record third quarter profits, business spending continues to be strong, and retail sales remain positive. In fact, buoyed by surging auto production and sales following the disruption caused by Japan’s springtime natural disaster, economic growth this quarter for the United States may be poised to not only be the fastest of the year, but also to be faster than the first two quarters of the year combined.
Despite this modest and far from disastrous outlook, uncertainty has outweighed optimism and question marks have outpaced clarity. The market is essentially suffering from a recession of confidence. With the mood decidedly bearish, the market does not believe in this recovery and investors do not have faith that policy makers can avert the second recession in three years. But, it is fear and emotional disbelief that often serves as the catalysts to lower expectations — and stock prices — to levels that even market bears see the value of owning. While the market still faces a challenging environment and has a wall of worry to overcome, I believe that patience and a vigorous commitment to your investment plan is the best strategy to weather this bout of uncertainty and serve as yet another example of the resiliency of the markets, the global economy, and American business.
As always, I encourage you to contact me with any questions.
Michael Tannery
The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, consult me prior to investing. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
The economic forecasts set forth in the presentation may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.
The Federal Open Market Committee action known as “Operation Twist” began in 1961. The intent was to flatten the yield curve in order to promote capital inflows and strengthen the dollar. The Fed utilized open market operations to shorten the maturity of public debt in the open market. The action has subsequently been reexamined in isolation and found to have been more effective than originally thought. As a result of this reappraisal, similar action has been suggested as an alternative to quantitative easing by central banks.
This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial.
If you are like me, I doubt that you noticed all the goals you had as a child. They were part of our everyday life. When I think about the important “people” and places in my life, I see the goals and the “coaches” that help me achieve these goals.
I am sure that most of you immediately read coach and assumed sports. You are partially correct, but there were others in areas that you may have overlooked. Three very important coaches stand out in my life.
My first coach was Mrs. Anne Jenkins my piano teacher. (http://www.richardsonmta.org/) I spent 4 years working with her and each week we would review the progress from the prior week and establish new goals for the next week. This taught me the importance of preparation and the repetition. The large goal each year was the “massive” piece of new music that was introduced in January and would be performed at “The Recital”. The Recital goal came with a consequence; performing to a room full of neighbors, other students and guests. As the date approached I remember how intensely I practiced and how as I mastered the music my confidence would grow. Lesson 1 – Preparation and Repetition.
Confidence is an important part of life that coaches develop and instill in their athletes. Rick Wheeler was my 10th grade football coach. As a 15 year old, Coach Wheeler was scary and demanding. What was Coach Wheeler’s secret talent? He was compassionate, although you would have never seen it with his on field demeanor. He cared about his players. Still caring he never accepted less than the best as he developed us as young men. I remember vividly the day. One of my teammates was having a tough day and Coach Wheeler turned to the football trainer and said, “Get this boy some liquid courage.” No one, not even the trainer knew what he meant. Moments later Coach Wheeler grabbed a squirt bottle of cold water and filled the player’s mouth. “Now” he said, show me some courage! Many years later, as I reflected on how his life, I saw the compassion that he had for us all. He taught us that strength and compassion were compatible and could be used to fight whatever battles life would give us. Coach Wheeler fought his battle in life, finally losing a 25 year fight to Parkinson’s in 2009. Lesson 2 – Compassion and Confidence
A different battle in my life occurred in my early 40’s. Divorce can be very damaging to your confidence. It’s a life change that you are never prepared for whether you wanted the divorce or you fought to keep you marriage. I struggled to regain my personal confidence to lead my family and my business. At that time, I was introduced to my first business coach, Lori Darley. (http://www.thetransitionscoach.com/) While I understood I needed a coach to support me in my business activities, it was working with Lori that returned my confidence that had eroded during my divorce. A simple exercise that we did together, “Ice Cream Cones” opened my mind to how important it is to live life with choice. Working together, she helped get my mind back in the game of life. Lesson 3 – Choice is something you cannot be taken away.
What does a coach have to do with Financial Goals? At points in your life, you will face times, when you will need someone on your team to guide and discuss the consequences of your actions. A good coach will help you identify your goals, set strategies on how