A Midsummer Night’s Dream is a comedy written by William Shakespeare between 1590 and 1597. It portrays the events surrounding the marriage of Theseus, the Duke of Athens, to Hippolytus. These include the adventures of four young Athenian lovers and a group of six amateur actors (the mechanicals) who are controlled and manipulated by the fairies who inhabit the forest in which most of the play is set. The play is one of Shakespeare’s most popular works for the stage and is widely performed across the world.
What is our Midsummer Night’s Dream or is this an ongoing Nightmare?
Taken today that same play might be considered Europe or the United States. nd no using Google!
The fairies in this was a European play could be the leaders of today’s Europe, President François Hollande of France, Prime Minister Matteo Renzi of Italy and acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy of Spain being led by Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany.
Looking overseas at the end of June, the majority in Great Britain voted for Brexit by a 52% to 48% margin. Immediately, there was a called for a new referendum and the market volatility caused by the vote.
While Brexit has occurred and the outcome is completely unknown as to how the release themselves from the EU had the “Remains” won there would still be many unresolved issues in Europe.
- Immigration – Refugees from Africa and the Middle East, many with the UK as their destination, would still be struggling across the Mediterranean or taking land routes into Eastern Europe. The frustration over immigration and immigrants is growing. Nationalism, as opposed to loyalty to the European Union, is a rising tide that shows no sign of receding. (1)
- Negative Interest Rates – The European Central Bank would still be holding interest rates below zero, buying private assets with public money, and propping up insolvent banks. The growing criticism of the ECB would still be growing, and negative rates would still be distorting European financial markets. (2)
- Turmoil of Political Leadership – Several EU governments have elections coming in the next twelve months and are experiencing the same political turmoil as the US. In France the election is in April, in Great Britain the election is only 63 days away and in Germany the latest an election can take place is October 22, 2017. These added with Holland on or before March 15, 2017 and Austria has a rerun of their election in early October. Each of these will be influenced by the Brexit and the turn towards nationalism. (3)
As the second half of 2016 unfolds, our fairies in the US are “The Fed” and politics seem to be the dominant forces in the US and they lead us to our unresolved issues.
Interest Rates – At the beginning of January 2016, Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer suggested to CNBC that there could be as many as four rate hikes this year. (Click here to watch the interview : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P6sBpjeN6lc ) So far we have not seen a single one. (4)
- Politics – Never before have you had two candidates for the Office of President running with such high negative voter ratings. At the end of July, we will have the conventions for both parties over, Vice-Presidential running mates announced and just over three months remaining of battling between the presumptive nominees mainly in the “battleground states”. Will there be any serious policy discussions? My opinion is NO. What you will get is an outpouring of promises that are focused on voter’s emotions. Translated into how will this improve my personal economy! (5)
Nero Fiddles While Rome Burns
What we do not have in either Europe or the US is the acknowledgement that we have a problem.There always seems to be the willingness to kick the can down the road to another year or another generation.The BREXIT has started the timer on acknowledging that there is a problem and once started there has to be an outcome.
- Questions you might want to consider.
- How will this impact my personal financial plan? What about Asia and China?
- What are the different outcomes for the US election?
For answers to these and other questions you might have, come join us and Morgan Palmer with First Trust Portfolio at our 2016 Halftime Report on July 27 at Pappadeaux’s in North Dallas.
Seating is limited.
Have a question and can’t wait till July 27? Then click on MY CALENDAR and schedule a time to speak with me.
Have a great weekend. You will find me wearing my sunblock and staying hydrated.
Michael Tannery CPA CDFA™ AIF® ● CEO
PS Ready to get started and want to schedule an initial no cost consultation? Click here to schedule an appointment.